A list of all of Doc Werlin’s writings pertaining to economics.
In recent weeks, key economic data highlight concerns that the economy will not rebound until sometime in 2009. In at least three key areas -- housing, automobiles and retail sales -- recently reported numbers [...]
The proposed purchase of Calpine Corp. by NRG Energy Inc. would create the largest independent power company in the United States. The nearly $11 billion takeover would double NRG's capacity in the United States [...]
The showering of rice on a newly wedded couple has always been symbolic of wishing prosperity and good luck. To this day, rice remains a token of a life of "plenty." Unfortunately, a dramatic [...]
The United States has advocated free trade policies of unrestricted imports and exports since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. This principle of refraining from imposing tariffs or quotas remained the case even after [...]
The need to achieve energy independence is as important for the U.S. today as obtaining hegemony in the space program was in the 1950s after the USSR launched Sputnik. Most experts feel that our [...]
Much like it picked Amazon Inc. Chairman Jeff Bezos in 1999 because he personified the field of e-commerce, Time magazine should choose Uncle Sam for its next Person of the Year, since he is [...]
The expected merger between Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines represents another blow to the deregulation policies of Jimmy Carter that ushered in many upstart airlines. Advocates of a "laissez faire" role for government [...]
Although I am not aware any statues of Alan Greenspan being toppled by irate crowds, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve has certainly fallen from a lofty perch. Once hailed as the "greatest [...]
When I reflect on major economic events in the first quarter of this year, I visualize a whole flock of black swans descending around me. One might ask, why black swans? I have become [...]
In the fairy tale "Goldilocks and the Three Bears," Goldilocks seemed happy enough to have a few bites of porridge from Mama, Daddy, and Baby Bear's bowls. But when Jamie Dimon, the CEO of [...]
“If it is too good to be true, then it not true” If you are counting on the Wall Street Firm that sold you the bonds, to now make a bid near par for [...]
In reading about recent events, I share the bewilderment of the central character of The Gods Must be Crazy. In this 1980 movie comedy, the central character, N!xau, embarks on an odyssey filled with [...]
“Economies Evolve, and so, too, must economic policy” -Hyman Minsky “Sometimes you have to shoot stray horses and their negligent keepers.” For the sake of G_D, we surely should not pay errant gate keepers [...]
A Demon of our own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation By Richard Bookstaber “You do not deliberately obliterate hundreds of billions of dollars of investor money. The financial markets that [...]
“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for a merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or is some contrivance to raise prices” —Adam Smith 1776 [...]
The proposed acquisition of Chrysler by a private- equity firm, Cerberus, reflects a growing trend throughout the world. That is, between twenty and twenty-five percent of all mergers and acquisitions over the past year [...]
Morgan Stanley’s Pristine Heritage “At all times, the idea of doing only first class business, and that in a first class way, has been before our minds.” J. P. Morgan Junior read into the [...]
What Motivated Me to Write this Market Letter? After Wednesday’s tumultuous market, highlighted by the twenty-five percent decline in the stocks of FNMA and Freddie Mac, I thought I would compose a market letter. [...]
On August 15th, I wrote an essay Fire Next Time. In that essay, I described some of the problems that I felt would impact negatively the stock market and the economy. Subsequently, including today, [...]
Since the financial crisis started on August 9, 2007 with the credit agencies precipitously downgraded over one hundred issuers, I have felt that despite many flaws in the global financial system we could muddle [...]
IntroductionYesterdays, shocking announcement by Merrill Lynch of $8.4 billion dollars deserves scrutiny. That is, this loss represented about 20% of Merrill’s net worth, and led to further stock decline. Merrill’s stock has declined in the [...]
Over the next week, I would like to write up three essays: 1) Putting the Real Estate Debacle in Perspective 2) Citicorp, A Corporate Rogue and 3) Did Stan O’Neal Rape Mother Merrill? The [...]
Since the credit crisis emerged on August 9, 2007 when the credit agencies downgraded over 100 collateralized securities, I have tried to carefully follow the reasons for the problem, the depth of the crisis, [...]
A very good friend of mine sent me this book, because he found it to be a terrific investment resource. After reading the book, I fully agree with my friend that Mr. Dreman has [...]
On August 15, 2007, I wrote a essay that indicated that unless the Federal Reserve and the Treasury took major remedial steps to make major regulatory changes that they would someday be unable to [...]
Several months ago, the Wall Street Journal printed an article, “U.S. Investors Face an Age of Murky Pricing.” The authors pointed out explicitly that many securities trade outside of the securities exchanges, and thus [...]
While I have always believed the white collar crime pays very well in the United States and that the American justice system suffers from Alzheimer’s disease, I frankly had a little more confidence that the [...]
In the September 29, 2007 Economist, the author discussed the importance of China in the world economy mostly from the perspective of the potential downside. That is, given China’s unprecedented growth rate for over [...]
In an article from today’s New York Times, the author David Leonhardt pointed to the major reason why residential real estate prices have eroded over the past few months. Moreover, Mr. Leonhardt points out [...]
In the past, I have never commented on the prediction of economists; however, given the turbulence of the stock market, I thought I would try to summarize Mr. Hymen’s thoughts. Mr. Hymen over the [...]
In today’s Wall Street Journal, David Wessel pointed out that the Federal Reserve which was created in 1913 was equipped to prevent and respond to commercial banking panics. The problem in the current crisis [...]
The action by the Federal Reserve to not only lower the Discount Rate but also to encourage commercial banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve eased pressure on a crucial part of the financial [...]
Over the past few years, the enormous dollar holdings accumulated by foreign wealth funds represents a major threat to American ownership of United States corporations and real estate. My definition of a sovereign wealth [...]
The New York Times, on 7/13/07, cited Lee Sheppard, a tax lawyer, who critiques deals for Tax Notes magazine. Mr. Sheppard noted that the absurdly favorable treatment accorded to Blackstone executives. That is, the [...]
Peter Peterson, the Former Chairman of the New York Economics Council, Lehman Brothers, and the Blackstone Group, has articulated in his book Running on Empty the growing financial crises that confront the United States. [...]
When I spoke to Jeff Smith, Managing Director Bank of America Capital Markets, about addressing this group of global fixed income managers, I was reading William Manchester’s biography on Douglas McArthur, an American Caesar. [...]
