On Thursday the Labor Department reported that we added 4.8 million jobs in June, reducing our unemployment rate slightly to 11.1%. This is our second month of job growth after losing 20 million jobs earlier this year.
However, the outlook for a robust July 4 remained dim because John Hopkins reported more than 52,000 new coronavirus cases in one day. Unfortunately, the spike in coronavirus cases will challenge our economic recovery. It will retard the speed of business hiring and the strength of consumer spending. Given the morbidity of the coronavirus, consumers remain hesitant to shop in stores or eat at restaurants.
Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Loyola Marymount University, reported a reduction in credit card spending. Sohn said that the data suggested that consumers have become cautious. Without strong consumer consumption, our economic recovery will remain challenged.
In is almost inconceivable that in February, before the pandemic, our unemployment rate hovered at a 50-year low, 3.5%.
We have a new reality. The Congressional Budge Office expects unemployment to fall to 10.5% by December. To put this in perspective, during the 2008-9 recession, unemployment remained below 10%.
Unemployment claims have declined from the 11 million registered in March. Instead, claims have stabilized near a historically high level of 1.5 million.
Approximately 40% of June’s employment growth reflects job gains in the leisure and hospitality sector. Unfortunately, the pandemic has an outsized influence over the job prospects of employees in this field. Florida imposed new restrictions on bars. New York City delayed the reopening of indoor dining at restaurants. Unless the pandemic upsurge abates, the job gains in this sector could disappear.
America has the dubious distinction of having the highest number of reported COVID-19 cases. The U.S. now accounts for more than 25% of worldwide cases. The overall numbers are grim — 11, 072,007 worldwide; 2,857,996 U.S.; Florida 156,000. Our nation’s death toll, 128,700, is worse than any other country.
The positive news is that our economy was healing faster than expected. However, the recent surge in coronavirus cases has caused businesses to postpone openings. State and local governments have put on hold their reopening plans and instituted new corrective measures. Nineteen states now require people to wear masks. Most major Florida cities, including Sarasota, now require wearing face masks.
Marianne Wanamaker, a labor economist at the University of Tennessee, nailed it. She said: “I think the recovery will stall out if we do not get control of the virus.”
While everyone is dealing with coronavirus restrictions this holiday weekend, scientists have been racing for a vaccine so we can get our lives back to normal.
The Milkin Institute is tracking 261 potential vaccines under development globally. Estimates for a coronavirus vaccine capable of inoculating millions of people hover around 18 months. While 18 months seem unbearably long, we need to remember that the traditional vaccine timeline is usually somewhere between 10 and 15 years.
Christopher Fox, the vice president of formulations at the Infectious Disease Research Institute, said that almost all of the vaccines do the same thing: “Trick your body into recognizing the coronavirus and destroying it.” There are four essential ways scientists try to train the immune system
- Use weakened or dead versions of the virus
- Deliver part of the virus’ genetic material into the body
- Hijack another type virus and genetically engineer it to produce coronavirus’s genetic material
- Teach the body to recognize a specific portion of a virus.
The tradition of setting off fireworks on the Fourth of July began in Philadelphia on July 4,1777, during the first organized celebration of Independence Day. Unfortunately, because of the pandemic, Sarasota canceled this year’s fireworks display. July Fourth without fireworks is like Christmas without Santa, Thanksgiving without turkey, and Halloween without going “trick or treating.”
