I recently read a book, “Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know,” that was very helpful in providing an overview of very positive major developments for our planet. Contrary to public opinion, this book provides statistical evidence that the world is getting better. In essence, you cannot fix what is wrong in the world if you don’t know what is actually happening.

1. The world economy is growing rapidly. As countries began adopting freer markets and we experienced increased international trade, the pace of economic growth has hastened. Since 1900 the global economy has grown more than 3% a year. By 2018 the GNP hit $121 trillion (35 times greater than 1900). At present growth rates, the world’s GNP should approach $600 trillion by 2100.

2. Poverty is declining. As late as 1820, 84% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, less than $1.99 per day per person. According to the World Bank, the percentage of people living in abject poverty declined to 8.6% by 2018. The World Bank projects a further decline to 5% by 2030 outside of war zones.

3. We have ample resources. The perception that because of overpopulation and over consumption we might deplete key resources appears too pessimistic. In terms of work required, 50 key commodities became 64% cheaper from 1980-2017. On an overall basis, commodities that took 60 minutes in 1980 took only 21 minutes of work to buy in 2017.

4. Peak population. Applied Systems Analysis estimated that the world’s population will likely peak at 9.8 billion around 2080 and fall to 9.5 billion by 2100. Rapid economic growth, technological advancement, and rising levels of educational attainment for both sexes will lower fertility. Parents around the world now aim at providing fewer children with the skills and social capital that will enable them to flourish in the modern economy. Under those assumptions by the end of the 21st century the world’s population would be similar to today, 7.6 billion.

5. The end of famine. For most of history, food was scarce. Since 1961, the global average population weighted food supply per person rose from 2196 calories per day to 2962 calories per day in 2017.

What accounts for growing access to food?

  • Agricultural productivity has increased because of more scientific methods of farming.
  • Improved fertilizers and pesticides.
  • New high-yield and disease-resistant plants.
  • People have become richer and can afford to buy more food.
  • Improved transport and communications allow countries with bountiful harvests to sell or donate their agricultural surpluses.

6. Positives of increased urbanization: Growing urbanization is good for humanity. Historically between 80%-90% of humanity lived in rural areas and worked in agriculture. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that 85% of the world’s population will be urbanized by 2100. On average, city dwellers use less electricity, emit less carbon dioxide and have smaller land footprints than people in the countryside.

7.  Democracy arose in Western Europe during the 18th century. In the early 1970s twice as many countries were autocratic than democratic. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, democracy expanded. Today about half the world has full-fledged democracies.

8. Global wars have decreased. Since World War II the number of interstate wars has declined precipitously. A combination of democracy, wealth, and economic interconnections has reduced the number of interstate wars.

9. Before the pandemic, the chance of a person dying in a natural catastrophe – earthquake, flood, drought, wildfire or epidemic – had declined by 99%.

Globally, people are getting richer faster than nature can destroy their property.

An understanding of these positive trends, encourages policymakers to emphasize education of both sexes, support democracies, and advocate liberalized trade policies. Being an optimist is not Pollyannaish but informed.

Originally published in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune