By David Kirkpatrick and David Singer NY Times Summary
(Both David Kirkpatrick and David Singer are well respected journalists)

In today’s New York Times, the article highlighted that Iran will breach the limits on uranium enrichment set four years ago in an accord with the United States and other international powers (6). Because the United States abrogated its obligations under the treaty last year, the decision by Iran now requires the other 6 developed countries to respond. A failure to force Iran to adhere to their previous agreement will trigger multi-faceted responses by other Middle Eastern States–Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. That is, Iran will have nuclear capability allowing it to produce an atomic bomb over the next few years unless their decision on enrichment is terminated. Most experts feel that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey will respond by building their own atomic bombs.

The Middle East is currently a tinderbox. Iran has belligerent relations with Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

In the case of Israel, Iran has repeatedly warned that it will destroy the Zionist State. Furthermore, Iran has provided hundreds of thousands of missiles to terrorist groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. These missiles have been fired into Israel’s territory for many years.

In the case of Egypt, Iran has provided military and financial aid to groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood who wish to overthrow the current Egyptian regime.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, Iran has undertaken multifaceted efforts to over throw that kingdom’s government and undermine Saudi influence in the region. Specifically, Iran either has used their own troops or financed proxy armies in Lebanon, Syria, Eastern Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Yemen. In brief, Iran has expanded its political influence over many territories outside Iran’s own territory.

To cut to the chase, political leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel feel that they are engaged in a life and death struggle with Iran. Obviously, an Iran that has nuclear capabilities escalates the tension.

America’s decision put Tehran and the other six nations that signed the agreement in a bind. That is, our economic sanctions are crippling its economy. That is, do the European countries accept Tehran’s enhanced nuclear capability or force Tehran to live up to their agreements? In all likelihood, European states will have different positions. This weakens these countries ability to reign in Iran. With the exception of Great Britain, there is significant doubt that the other five European Countries even have the will to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear capability.

In a phone conversation on Saturday seeking to head off a confrontation, President Emmanuel Macron of France asked Mr. Rouhani, Iran’s president, to explore by July 15 whether a new negotiation was possible. Mr. Rouhani agreed, according to news reports, but said “lifting all sanctions can be the beginning of a move between Iran and the six major powers.”

In concluding, many Mideast Experts feel that the Trump administration fatally undermined the Iran Nuclear agreement. The Trump administration “has discredited the very concept of negotiations, and it has strengthened the hand of those inside Iran who would argue that it is no use talking to the Americans because you can never trust them,” said Rob Malley, a former National Security Council official who helped negotiate the 2015 accord.

From my perspective, I feel badly that the Trump Administration took unilateral action rather than trying to get the other European countries to work with us on this issue. I despise Iran’s systematic employment of terrorism, their sponsorship of missile attacks on Israel, and their supporting the brutal dictatorship of Basher Al Assad. However, I am also cognizant that Americans are war weary after our prolonged military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. In my judgment we have spent $ trillions and spilled much blood for negligible results. It is not realistic that we are going to take on Iran by ourselves.