On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Nations ministers failed to agree on a new production ceiling. The cartel that controls over a third of the world’s oil has been pumping all out for the past 18 months.

As a consequence of those months of heavy production, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell in January to a 13-year low, $27 per barrel, down more than 50 percent from its 2014 peak. Prices have rebounded significantly since then. WTI was trading Monday slightly above $49 per barrel.

Despite the recent squabbles and failure to reach agreements, OPEC officials attempted to present a united front. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, told CNBC that the spirit of the meeting was very cooperative and collaborative. “We are extremely happy,” he said. “I think the market is in good shape. The market is balancing; trends are all good in terms of supply and demand. Prices have recovered somewhat, and I believe they will continue to recover.”

The next OPEC meeting is set for Nov. 30 in Vienna, though the cartel said it could meet earlier, depending upon market conditions.

Despite last week’s show of solidarity, the 13 members of the OPEC producer group hold strongly different views on what the bloc’s next move should be. Kuwait and Qatar seem to agree with Saudi Arabia’s desire for an output ceiling. Poorer countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Iraq and Algeria are siding with Iran, which wants a country-specific quota system.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and Iran’s regional rival, had tried to engineer output limits in recent months and signaled a willingness to consider a new collective production ceiling, but only if all members including Iran joined in.

OPEC had an official production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day until December 2014, when that target was effectively abandoned, allowing members to pump freely and adding to a global glut in oil.

In an interview on CNBC following the OPEC meeting, Mike Rothman, president and founder of U.S.-based research firm Cornerstone Analytics, predicted that oil prices could rise to $85 by the end of the year. Rothman argues that the International Energy Agency has been underestimating demand. He also points out that oil inventories dropped in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries in March, April, and May. On the supply side, Rothman predicts that the major reduction in capital expenditures by major oil companies and oil producers will lead to declines in future production. The decline in output from

On the supply side, Rothman predicts that the major cutbacks in capital expenditures by major oil companies and oil producers caused by the low prices will lead to declines in future production. The decline in output from shale-formation companies in the U.S., which cannot produce cheaply enough to be profitable at low prices, is another reason for optimism about future oil prices.

It wasn’t always this way. Following the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973, OPEC displayed strength and unity of purpose. It imposed an oil embargo on the West that catapulted crude from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel. The cartel was reasonably successful in imposing production caps and quotas until recently.

The failure of OPEC to reach an agreement on oil production raises questions about OPEC’s on-going relevance.

OPEC now faces new challenges. Non-member states such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Canada and the United States have different agendas than OPEC and it is their increased oil production that has contributed to an oversupply. The lifting of sanctions on Iran enabled it to raise production from 1.9 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. Iran wants to raise its capacity to the 2002 pre-sanction-era level of 4 million barrels per day.

Unlike in the early 1970s, before the Islamic revolution in Iran, that country and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a deadly rivalry that has spilled over into civil wars in Yemen and Syria. The global ramifications of these Middle East conflicts are widespread and disconcerting. Hopefully, some compromise can be reached in OPEC that will not only stabilize prices but also restore political stability.

In the meantime, fortunately, Saudi Arabia has led OPEC to provide a steady supply of oil and allow market forces to set prices.

Originally published in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune