Over the past few years I have enjoyed immensely Fateful Choices, Ten Decisions that Changed the World, 1940-1941 by Ian Kershaw.
This essay is devoted to the Japanese Decision to Attack Pearl Harbor. Their choice was widely considered illogical by many leading members of the military (especially the Navy), the main proponents of starting the war with America. That is, Japan’s military leaders knew full well that in a prolonged war with the United States Japan would certainly lose. Their decision to attack Pearl Harbor was to convince America not to block Japanese interests in China, and other countries in Southeast Asia. In essence, Japan hoped to persuade America to accept Japanese hegemony over their “expected sphere of interest or their place in the Sun.”
Ironically, Japan after suffering horrendous losses in World War II, ultimately through embracing capitalism and forming an alliance with America achieved her objectives. Specifically, with the end of colonial occupation of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore Japan attained unprecedented prosperity.
However, hindsight always provides 20-20 vision. That is, the world Japan faced in the 1930’s was dictated by the mercantile interests of the colonial powers. Thus, since Japan needed raw materials from abroad she suffered tremendously from the barriers to trade erected by colonial powers such as Great Britain, France, and the Netherlands.
Even worse, Japan wasted incredible resources on trying to conquer China. Japan even at the height of World War II committed over 1 million soldiers and significant resources to defeating an old antagonist, China had at least 7 times the manpower of Japan. Moreover, China’s vast geography made it impossible to completely control the countryside. Thus, Japan committed herself to a war without end.
Japan’s decision to invade first Manchuria in 1931 and China in 1937 embittered Western Powers– England, France, and America. Moreover, America’s resolve that Japan must abandon China hardened over time. Thus, by 1940, we had placed an embargo on Japan on critical materials such as rubber, steel, and oil. Japan forced herself into a corner. That is, she could abandon China, a humiliating sacrifice, or attack Western Democracies. In the end, militant Japanese officers particularly at the mid level ultimately prevailed upon their senior officers, government officials and even the Emperor. Japan’s decision took a tortuous path. There were endless debates about strategy, especially since some senior members of the government, the navy, and even the Emperor worried about attacking America given our immense resources. The final decision to launch a surprise attack on the United States took place in the fall of 1941.
Another key issue was the strategic weakness of the Pact of Steel, composed of Japan, Italy, and Germany. In fact, these countries really operated independently and took military steps without prior consultation with the other. Italy’s attack on Albania, Greece, and France were undertaken without consultation with Germany. Germany’s non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union in 1939 was executed without notification to her allies. In turn, the Japanese never informed Italy or Germany or her decision to attack the United States at Pearl Harbor or the British. Unlike the close cooperation between America and Great Britain, the Pact of Steel was in name only. The division within the Pact of Steel was a fatal weakness. In contrast, despite misgivings, the United States provided substantial aide to the Soviet Union. Our cooperation with Great Britain was unprecedented and certainly helped both countries enormously.
The alliance with Japan severely hurt Germany. First of all, Japan fearing a confrontation with both Russia and the United States never declared war on the Soviet Union. There were skirmishes in early 1940 between Japan and the Soviet Union, but these never escalated into full scale war. Thus, Stalin was able to redeploy troops from Siberia to help stop the German drives in 1942 and 1943. This proved to be significant in the ultimate Soviet mastery over Germany. The Soviet Union had a one front war, while Germany had to divide her troops between East and West. Secondly, Germany felt compelled to declare war on America, although she had not been consulted about Pearl Harbor. Hitler did not want to risk the “humiliation of America declaring war on Germany first.” The German declaration allowed America to place an emphasis on defeating Germany first, and Japan second. Douglas Macarthur seethed over the attention to Europe over the Pacific theatre.
In conclusion, Japan suffered from the law of unintended consequences. By attacking China, she alienated the West and was physically incapable of helping Germany defeat the Soviet Union. Instead, Japan made the significant mistake of attacking America. If Japan would have been neutral during World War II, she could have avoided a catastrophe and ultimately peacefully benefited from the end of colonial empires. The downfall of an undefeated Japan would have been the continuation of their military-industrial complex. This would have prevented the evolution of democracy and capitalism—two important elements in Japan’s revival.
